Russia’s Birth Rate Dynamics Forecasting

This article covers contemporary issues of Russia’s population reproduction, their causes and the state policy aimed to overcome the same. The urgency to fulfill the task related to assessment of the most probable future dynamics of Russia’s population birth rate in the context of a low child-woman ratio, and subject to an impact of pronatalist policies implemented by the state, is justified. In order to fulfill the task based on the crude birth rate behavior probability distribution function, a probabilistic assessment of future dynamics of Russia’s population reproduction has been carried out. Based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, the following two forecasting paths of the crude birth rate dynamics have been built: the first path conforms to the scenario where a value of the crude birth rate is to tend to values between 8–10.5 births/1,000 people (probability is 0.182), in particular, through a negative external impact, the second path is to tend to values between 13–16.5 births/1,000 people (probability — 0.618), in particular, through a positive external impact. Notwithstanding that these scenarios significantly differ from each other, the paths of the crude birth rate dynamics for 2015–2041, corresponding to the reliable prediction time, forecasted according to the abovementioned scenarios, are virtually identical. The analysis of the findings allowed for the conclusion that the state demographic policy is not capable of having a significant impact on the future dynamics of the birth rate, substantially determined by the current situation and conjuncture shifts. These conclusions confirm the view prevailing in academic circles and suggesting that the state regulation of Russia’s demographic situation should be primarily focused on the improvement in health and a rise in the life expectancy of the population.The research has been prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation grant (Project No. 14-18-00574 “Information and analytic systems “Anticrisis”: diagnostics of the regions, threat evaluation and scenario forecasting to preserve and reinforce the welfare of Russia”)

Economic tomography: the possibility to anticipate and respond to socio-economic crises

The article discusses an approach based on an original hypothesis related to the peculiarities of Russia’s development (on the one hand, its scale, the Russian mentality and a certain closeness of the economy; on the other hand, a significant dominant resource and human potential, and, as a consequence, a genuine role in the global economic community), the diagnosis of which (at the level of the well-being of individuals and inhabited areas) can be used to identify crises, provide an early assessment of threats to socio-economic development of regions as well as help to evaluate the state of the region over a 3 to 5 year period. In other words, in order to ensure that executives have enough time to mount a sufficiently rapid response to the crises and administrative errors and to reduce the impact of emerging threats. The aim of this paper is to present theoretical and methodological tools for the recognition of the early stages of emerging threats, allowing fewer losses to be experienced during the crisis period. Simulation experiments were carried out for the purpose of classifying previously occurring social and economic crises (9 possible variants were reviewed) and mathematically processed trajectories of change in the main indicators for the well-being of individuals and inhabited areas, taking the influence of various factors into account. On the basis of the authors’ proposed approach (referred to as economic tomography) an attempt is made to comprehensively assess the state of sample representative regions of Russia.The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project № 14–18–00574 'Information-analytical system "Anticrisis:" diagnostics of the regions, threat assessment and scenario forecasting for the preservation and strengthening of economic security and well-being of Russia')

Informative evaluation of main methods of early diagnosis of prostate gland cancer

То evaluate informatively the main methods of early diagnosis of prostate gland cancer the authors studied the diagnostic importance of prostatic specific antigen determination, digital rectal and transrectal ultrasonic investigation of prostate in the group of 245 patients who later underwent a prostate biopsy. Insufficient specificity of the diagnostic methods used due to wide-spread benign hyperplasia of prostate in the given cohort of the patients was determined. That doesn’t allow to limit the indications to biopsy which, at present, is a leading method for the diagnosis of prostate gland cancer.С целью оценки информативности основных методов ранней диагностики рака предстательной железы, применяемых в повседневной клинической практике, авторами изучена диагностическая ценность определения простатического специфического антигена, пальцевого ректального исследования и трансректального ультразвукового исследования простаты в группе из 245 больных, которым впоследствии была выполнена биопсия простаты. Выявлена недостаточная специфичность применяемых методов диагностики вследствие высокого распространения доброкачественной гиперплазии простаты в диагностируемом контингенте больных, что не позволяет сузить показания к биопсии, которая в настоящий момент является ведущим методом диагностики рака предстательной железы

Risks assessment and forecasting long time rows of economic indicators

This paper reviews main approaches to risk assessment. The authors accented attention on the nonlinear approach to the theory of risks. It is proposed to define economic risk as the probability of threats that could have material adverse effect on the economic system under study and to change its current state. The method and the program product designed by the authors integrate a wide range of indicators of economic and financial activities at the regional level in the program-technical complex. This paper describes a new method for assessing synergistic and prediction of risk over long time rows of economic indicators at the regional level, including methods of nonlinear and chaotic dynamics, enabling a pseudo-phase and phase portraits, to determine the volatility, to calculate fractal characteristics and predict the behavior of socio-economic indicators with modernized method of Hurst, to model based on recovery probability distribution function of non-equilibrium potential function, to determine the local and global stability of the regional economy and to identify risks as the probability of the threats of an economic nature

PREDICTION OF THE INCIDENCE OF PROSTATE CANCER IN THE URAL ECONOMIC REGION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Objective. To quantify and to forecast the dynamics of registered cases of prostate cancer (PC) in the Ural economic region.Material and methods. The study used official statistics on the incidence of prostate cancer in the Russian Federation for the period since 2004 to 2013. inclusive. For the predictive calculation we used the upgraded Hurst method, wich is also called the method of normalized range (R/S). All calculations and the resulting graphs are made with specialized software.Results. Based on available statistic data for a specified period of time, we constructed the graphs of the figure of registered cases of prostate cancer for each subject the Ural economic region and for Russia as a whole. After 2013. graphics were built on the basis of the calculated forecast data. The forecast was built with the assumption of constant further factors contributing to identifying patients with prostate cancer in the study area. The results indicate the inhomogeneous statistics of the indicator for the study area is subject to subjective economic division. Overall, on the territory of the Ural economic region the increase of the incidence of prostate cancer is expected. The incidence rate in Russia is characterized by stable growth, which is expected in the future (a projection until 2018).Conclusions. In recent years, the development of medical technology has led to the expansion of the arsenal of diagnostic and therapeutic opportunities in prostate cancer leading to the emergence of alternative choice of activities in the preparation of individual treatment plan of the patient with newly diagnosed. The increase in the share of the costs in this section of Oncology is due both to the increase in the absolute number of detected cases of the disease, and with changes in the quality of aid. In this regard, the observed and projected increase in the recorded incidence of prostate cancer naturally raises the question of the continued availability of quality medical care in this type of pathology. Planning and controlling costs for aid should be based on the received data about the forecast of the incidence of prostate cancer

Social and economic consequences of drug abuse in the region

Methodical questions of diagnosing drug situation in the territory. It shows the composition of performance indicators to assess the state of the drugs situation in the regions. The approaches to the determination of the key indicators of the drug situation - the actual number of drug users, a critical mass of drug addicts, the damage caused by drug addiction. Given the results of the diagnosis of the drug situation for Urals Federal District for the period 1999 - 2003 years. The main directions of work to counter the spread of drug addiction and neutralize its effects within the county

Forecast of the demografic development of Russia

In the article, the contemporary issues of the reproduction of the Russian population, their reasons, and state policy toward them are considered. Relevance of the task solution of assessment of the most expected birth rate dynamics of the Russian population in future in the conditions of low norms of the parenthood status taking into account the influence of government measures for the birth rate stimulation is proved. In order to achieve this objective, on the basis of the behavior probability distribution function of crude birth rate, the probabilistic assessment of the future birth rate dynamics of the Russian population was conducted. On the basis of the modernized Hirst method, two expected dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate were constructed: the first trajectory corresponds to the scenario at which the value of crude birth rate will be in the range of 8-10,5 born/1000 people (probability - 0,182), including the negative external impact, the second trajectory will be in the range of 13-16,5 born/1000 people (probability - 0,618), including the positive external impact. In spite of the fact that these scenarios are quite different, the dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate predicted according to them during the period of 2015-2041 that corresponds to the time of the reliable prediction are almost identical. The analysis of the received results enabled to conclude that the state population policy cannot affect the future dynamics of the birth rate due mainly to to the conjunctural changes.These conclusions confirm the intellectual vested interest of the academic circles that government regulation of a demographic situation in Russia has to be aimed, first of all, at the health improvement and increase of the expected life interval of the population.Рассмотрены современные проблемы воспроизводства населения России, причины их формирования и государственная политика по их преодолению. Обоснована актуальность решения задачи оценки наиболее вероятной будущей динамики рождаемости населения страны в условиях низких норм детности с учетом влияния реализуемых государственных мер стимулирования рождаемости

Economic tomography: Opportunity to foresee and respond to socio-economic crises

In the article, the approach based on the authors' hypothesis is considered: the development of Russia has specific characteristics (on the one hand, its size, mentality and certain closed nature of its economy, on the other hand, the considerable dominating resource and human potential, and, as the result, its real role in the world economic community). The diagnostics of these characteristics (at the level of the individual's welfare and territory of accommodation) reveals crises, estimates threats to region socio-economic development at early stages and helps to evaluate the state of a region for 3-5 years. In other words, managers have time necessary for rapid response to the crisis phenomena and administrative mistakes, for decreasing the impact of the arising threats. The purpose of the article is to present the theoretical and methodological tools of the appearing threats recognition at their early stages, which allows to enter the crisis period with smaller losses. Computational experiments to classify the prior socio-economic crises have been conducted (9 possible options are considered), the trajectories of change of the main indicators of the individual's welfare and territory of residence influenced by various factors are digitized. On the basis of the proposed approach (named as the economic tomography), the attempt of the comprehensive assessment of the state of Russian typical representative regions is made.Рассмотрен подход, базирующийся на гипотезе, связанной с особенностями развития России, диагностика которых выявляет кризисы. Выделены модули благосостояния личности и территории проживания. Представлен теоретико-методологический и методический инструментарий распознавания на ранних стадиях появляющихся угроз, позволяющий с меньшими потерями входить в кризисный период. Проведены вычислительные эксперименты с целью классификации социально-экономических кризисов. Проанализировано состояние типопредставительных регионов России